Otterblog

There’s a new poll out today from USA Today about the presidential race. It shows the McCain-Palin ticket having done a reversal on Obama-Biden and now with a sizable lead. Political polls are a staple this time of year, and you can expect many more between now and election day. AP, the principal provider of national news for the Journal, also does its own polling. USA Today uses Gallup. AP uses an outfit called Ipsos.

Polls and politics have a long history together—and some of it is controversial. There is—of course—the famous Dewey beats Truman headline of 1948. But polling is a lot more sophisticated than it used to be, flaws and all. The main issue with polls these days is the surveyed electorate, as more people—particularly the young and the restless—don’t have land lines.

I find the journalism of poll reporting to be troubling. On the one hand, polls give a good snapshot of where a race is at a particular point in time, and that can inform the reporting on issues and strategies. It gives context and helps answer “why.” On the other hand, my concern is that polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy. A poll says a race is over. So people don’t vote. So the race is truly over. I think concern one outweighs concern two, if only because there’s no embargo on poll coverage. The Journal not running these numbers isn’t going to prevent many people from knowing about them.

That said, tell me your thoughts on this issue. You often hear candidates say “The only poll that counts is on Election Day.” Are they right?