As we head into the primary season ahead of the mid-term elections, it’s time for politicians and those who watch politicians to start paying attention to the numbers.
This is the perfect storm of mid-term elections, because we have a president who is barred from re-election. Come Nov. 8, the attention shifts quickly to 2008. Everybody is jockeying for position and for momentum to get them into position.
One way to get a sense of the electorate is to do a poll. In North Carolina, Elon University has captured a nice little niche in this market with its Elon University Poll. The university has done this for a while, and it’s earned a reputation for nonpartisan consistency.
So what can we make of poll numbers that show the president’s disapproval rating at 52 percent in the southern states that embraced him so strongly in November 2004? A lot and not a lot. Disapproval ratings are notoriously squishy. Americans are a hard bunch to please. A disapproval rating is not the same thing as a referendum and doesn’t mean that a working majority of voters in the region would now vote against him if given the chance.
But what it does show is that with the right candidates, Democrats have some openings. For Republicans, it means more counter-punching and trying to frame the debate on terms they can win, regardless of the president’s approval rating.
Your host is Ken Otterbourg, the managing editor at the Winston-Salem Journal. It's a forum to discuss the media, from
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